Fascism / genocide / Joe Biden / MASS MURDER / Russia / The Great Famine / The Great Reset

Biden’s War with Russia is driving Global FAMINE | David Friedberg

“The whole planet earth operates on a 90-day food supply so once we stop making food humans run out of food in 90 days…. Across all nations what happens is the most vulnerable nations lose their food supply first and the richer nations buy that food supply to secure their population calories and so you very quickly see a bifurcation happen when you have a shortage in a food supply like this of just a few points where suddenly famine is a real risk and we already have about 800 million people on earth that are subsisting on below 1200 calories a day. So this very quickly tips the bucket in a significant way in a number of countries that’s going to be really awful.”  ~  David Friedberg



0:03 there’s a number of

0:04 first order and then second order

0:06 effects

0:08 that are not just about sanctions but

0:10 also about export controls by russia

0:12 that

0:13 are creating swings in food markets like

0:16 we’ve never seen

0:17 and will almost certainly lead to

0:19 widespread famine by the end of this

0:21 year at this point

0:23 so

0:24 the first

0:25 important point to note is about 15 of

0:27 the world’s calories come from wheat

0:30 about a third of that wheat comes from

0:31 russia ukraine russia has banned export

0:33 of wheat

0:34 and the wheat spring planting season is

0:37 like now this week

0:39 um and there’s not a lot of planting

0:41 going on you know a lot of commodity

0:42 folks are in the field trying to figure

0:44 out who’s actually going to go to field

0:45 and plant

0:47 but

0:48 no one’s making

0:49 you know the concerted effort that they

0:51 normally would under normal

0:52 circumstances so not only is the current

0:54 wheat supply in russia ukraine blocked

0:56 up and cannot make its way to countries

0:58 like africa or countries in africa and

1:01 elsewhere but the future planting season

1:04 is now significantly at risk and again

1:06 that’s 15 of global calories the whole

1:08 planet earth operates on a 90-day food

1:11 supply so

1:13 once we stop making food humans run out

1:15 of food in 90 days so another way to

1:17 think about that is our food supply

1:18 excess our capacity

1:21 in excess is about 25 of our global

1:23 production

1:24 so if our global production goes down

1:26 by 12 we’ve lost half of our global food

1:28 supply and that’s not just linearly

1:31 across all nations what happens is the

1:32 most vulnerable nations lose their food

1:34 supply first and the richer nations buy

1:36 that food supply to secure their

1:38 population calories

1:40 and so you very quickly see a

1:42 bifurcation happen when you have a

1:43 shortage in a food supply like this of

1:45 just a few points

1:46 where suddenly famine is a real risk and

1:48 we already have

1:50 about 800 million people on earth that

1:52 are subsisting on below 1200 calories a

1:55 day so this very quickly tips the bucket

1:58 in a significant way in a number of

2:00 countries that’s going to be really

2:01 awful

2:02 and that’s just on the wheat

2:04 supply and weak planting problem the

2:06 bigger problem is the energy price

2:09 problem and the phosphorus and potassium

2:11 problem

2:12 all fertilizer is made up of nitrogen

2:14 phosphorus or potassium those are the

2:16 three major types of fertilizer that

2:18 farmers around the world have to use

2:20 every year in order to grow that crop

2:21 without fertilizer plants don’t grow

2:24 nitrogen is made from natural gas 98 of

2:26 the world’s ammonia is made from natural

2:27 gas

2:28 natural gas prices as you guys know have

2:30 doubled and the futures market looks

2:32 like in some places natural gas prices

2:34 going up like 4x

2:36 as a result the price of ammonia

2:38 fertilizer nitrogen-based fertilizer has

2:40 gone from 200 a ton to a thousand

2:42 dollars a ton so it’s five times as

2:45 expensive to buy basic ammonia

2:46 fertilizer today than it was a few weeks

2:49 ago or a few months ago and so this is

2:51 now leading a lot of farmers around and

2:52 then the other big problem is phosphorus

2:54 so

2:56 phosphorus by some estimates i mean you

2:58 know there’s a little variation around

2:59 here but about 10 of the world’s

3:02 phosphate comes out of russia and um

3:05 about

3:06 25 of the world’s potassium comes out of

3:08 russia potash both of those markets are

3:11 blocked up they they are they are

3:12 sanctioned and they have banned exports

3:14 russia has through the rest of 2022. so

3:16 around the world the cost to make

3:18 nitrogen fertilizer has skyrocketed

3:20 because of natural gas prices because of

3:21 the russia problem and russia is not

3:24 exporting potassium and phosphorus and

3:25 as a result the price of nitrogen has

3:27 gone from 200 to a thousand the price of

3:29 potassium has gone from 200 to 700 and

3:32 the price of phosphorus has gone from

3:33 250 to 700.

3:35 so now it’s so expensive to grow a crop

3:38 that a lot of farmers around the world

3:40 are pulling acres out of production and

3:42 they’re actually going to grow less this

3:43 year than they would have otherwise

3:45 because it is so expensive and they

3:47 cannot access fertilizer locally to

3:49 plant crops so not only do we have the

3:51 wheat problem

3:53 we now also have the fertilizer problem

3:55 and the acres coming out of production

3:57 problem and so food supplies are going

3:59 to go down even further and this is

4:00 going to become even more catastrophic

4:02 and so there’s a scrambling going on

4:04 right now you know food prices around

4:06 the world as a result everyone starts

4:08 buying up all the commodities they buy

4:09 up all the corn they buy up the soybeans

4:10 they buy up the wheat and the price for

4:12 corn has nearly doubled whereas you know

4:14 from where it was in july of 2020 uh the

4:17 price of soybeans the price of wheat are

4:19 all skyrocketing and in a lot of

4:21 countries they cannot afford to uh to

4:24 buy food uh with the skyrocketing

4:26 commodity prices can ask you a question

4:27 uh

4:28 i think it’s estimated that the u.s food

4:31 supply

4:32 if you could x out the waste would

4:34 actually feed most of the developing

4:36 world because i think 30 to 40 percent

4:38 of all of our food is wasted can you do

4:39 something with that yeah that is

4:41 actually true um a lot of that happens

4:44 at the point of consumption so it’s in

4:45 people’s homes so it’s a reverse supply

4:48 chain problem you know we throw away a

4:49 lot of like stale bread and cereal that

4:52 goes bad or whatever

4:54 there’s some in the fresh vegetables

4:55 market but generally the core calorie

4:57 producing commodities are rice

5:00 wheat potatoes um and corn

5:04 those commodities don’t go bad in the

5:06 supply chain they end up getting tossed

5:08 out at the end of the supply chain which

5:09 is at the point of consumption at home

5:10 so you know i’m not sure there’s a real

5:12 solution there right now the the bigger

5:14 issue is like how do you get bulk

5:15 commodities to the places that are going

5:17 to need them over the next 12 months so

5:19 look right now we’re reducing food

5:20 supplies stocks around the world there

5:23 are strategic reserves that are getting

5:24 opened up and being released

5:26 as that starts to get the plenish um

5:29 diminished and as the production kind of

5:31 numbers start to come out it looks like

5:32 less acres are in production

5:35 you know and god willing we have a good

5:37 weather year everywhere this year

5:38 because you know a bad weather year in

5:40 some markets could completely decimate

5:42 the remaining supply that’s coming out

5:43 this year regardless it is going to be a

5:46 humanitarian disaster within a year and

5:48 we will see hundreds of millions of

5:50 people go starving you know there will

5:52 be strategic reserves released there

5:53 will be stuff but it won’t be enough we

5:55 just don’t have enough in the way supply

5:57 chains are set up there just isn’t

5:58 enough and so once again we found

6:00 another supply chain weakness

6:03 uh like we did in covet over and over

6:05 again and so

6:07 will be released

6:08 but then hoarding is starting so david

6:11 you take it after this but the one

6:13 question i had was maybe talk to me

6:14 about this concept of hoarding because

6:16 there seems to be a cascading effect and

6:18 you you kind of well yeah it’s not just

6:21 a little bit as with any market guys as

6:23 you know

6:24 when there’s scarcity people come in and

6:26 buy at a faster pace you know everyone

6:29 and so this is a market dynamic it’s not

6:31 like people are physically hoarding

6:32 loaves of bread but commodity traders uh

6:35 countries strategic reserves they start

6:37 buying up what they can get to prepare

6:39 for the famine that’s coming then prices

6:41 go even higher and then it kicks other

6:43 people out of the market that couldn’t

6:44 afford to buy it and the whole thing

6:45 gets really ugly really and there’s no

6:47 off ramp here there’s no way to solve

6:48 this well what freeberg yeah the thing i

6:50 want to ask you is if we had a peace

6:52 deal right now a ceasefire would we

6:54 avoid this outcome i mean like how long

6:56 how long do we have to avoid we need

6:58 russia to reopen fertilizer export

7:00 markets now we need natural gas prices

7:03 to come down now and we need them to

7:05 plant the spring wheat those are three

7:07 things that need to happen to solve this

7:08 problem if those three things don’t

7:10 happen we’re going into spring right now

7:12 so around the world in the northern

7:14 hemisphere

7:15 farmers are making plans they’re

7:16 planting they’re deciding how much

7:18 fertilizer to use and so as this market

7:20 starts to kind of work itself out over

7:23 the next few months

7:24 a lot of the commodity traders and the

7:26 the ag departments they publish these

7:28 planting reports and they talk about how

7:30 many acres of what were planted and then

7:31 everyone forecast how much the supply

7:32 will be and we’re going to start to see

7:34 these uglier numbers come out over the

7:36 next few weeks and months meanwhile

7:37 we’re seeing supplies dwindle and russia

7:39 is holding all this stuff so you know

7:41 they’re holding hostage

7:43 uh phosphorus

7:44 potassium and the natural gas pricing is

7:47 just what it is remember there are

7:49 ammonia plants everywhere the ammonia

7:51 plants and i and all ammonia plants use

7:53 natural gas to cr to you know to create

7:56 this nitrogen-based ammonia we’re

7:57 finding out all of these externalities

8:00 that was made with underlying

8:03 poor scientific

8:04 reasoning that has caused these issues

8:06 to be exacerbated so we know for example

8:08 that our over-reliance on russian

8:10 hydrocarbons could have been mitigated

8:12 with nuclear but we fell for shoddy

8:14 science and we fell

8:16 for uh a bunch of uninformed people who

8:20 ran this banner of like

8:22 environmental protection right so they

8:24 screwed us okay and those people now

8:26 have meaningfully less credibility let

8:28 me give you another cohort freeberg and

8:30 you tell me all the people that pushed

8:33 back on gmo and said gmo was

8:36 unacceptable it could never happen it

8:38 has to be x y and z way

8:41 and there are ways where we could have

8:43 been working on plants that had

8:46 different mechanisms of action in order

8:48 to actually absorb and retain nutrients

8:51 from the soil in different ways that

8:52 would have made us less reliant in

8:54 exactly the way in which fertilizer

8:56 works true or false yeah gmo technology

8:59 as a former monsanto executive so you

9:01 can call me a monsanto chill here

9:04 but

9:05 yeah gmo technology has been hindered

9:07 globally

9:09 by a challenge

9:11 to adopt it and there are

9:13 techniques and technologies that have

9:15 not been aggressively developed because

9:18 of the concern on approvals just to get

9:20 a single gmo trait approved in the

9:22 united states today and get it to market

9:23 can take 7 to 13 years

9:25 and even then you have to still go get

9:28 china to approve it because they’re the

9:29 biggest importer and you have to you

9:31 know get all these other market

9:32 participants to approve it and there are

9:34 multiple agencies to get to approve it

9:36 europe is finally the eu is finally

9:38 coming back to the gmo problem and

9:40 saying you know what precision gene

9:41 editing can actually be beneficial to

9:43 growing better more stuff

9:45 now would it have solved this particular

9:47 crisis

9:48 can i just say what’s so ridiculous

9:50 about this the fact that we have a

9:52 modern agrarian economy is because we

9:54 actually did figure out a way to do gmo

9:57 except we use the punnett square and we

9:58 use successive iterations but the minute

10:01 that you try to scientifically scale it

10:03 in a lab all of a sudden that same

10:04 process

10:06 is not uh does not make any sense to me

10:08 that’s

10:09 it’s just intellectually so inconsistent

10:11 yeah the thing that really scares people

10:13 about gmo look i mean i’ve spent a lot

10:15 of time on gmos and the reason people

10:17 are upset i i have a broader

10:18 philosophical do you believe in that do

10:19 you believe in that in consisting that

10:21 intellectual inconsistencies like how do

10:22 you think somebody from you know pre-bc

10:24 to today i think that agriculture is

10:26 iterated

10:28 no i think agriculture itself is

10:29 technology think about it humans humans

10:31 used to go out and just eat whatever was

10:33 lying around what nature gave us then we

10:35 started making rose in the ground and

10:37 putting seeds in the ground and putting

10:39 water on the ground we engineered the

10:41 earth to make it so we started to

10:42 breathe and then we used plant breeding

10:44 and traditional plant breeding through

10:45 enormous normal energy save the world

10:49 modifying things it is and then what we

10:51 did with gmos which is the distinction

10:53 just to be really clear about the

10:54 definitional distinction between gmo and

10:56 traditional plant breeding gmo is when

10:57 you take dna from another organism and

11:00 you put it in the plant’s dna to get

11:02 that plant to do something very specific

11:04 and jason you came with me to monsanto i

11:05 mean you think you’re

11:07 cautious we should be cautious about any

11:09 time we’re doing stuff like that right

11:11 but

11:12 and then there’s generally like a very

11:13 visceral reaction when i make that

11:14 statement and people are like wait

11:15 you’re taking the dna from bacteria and

11:17 putting it in plants and how do i know

11:19 that’s going to work and so there’s

11:20 these layers of concern which you know

11:23 are deeply psychological layers but we

11:25 can you know scientifically resolve this

11:27 over time but look at the end of the day

11:29 humans today you guys remember last year

11:31 how much i was talking about that stark

11:33 synthesis paper and how important it was

11:35 we don’t need to grow plants to make the

11:38 stuff we need to consume if every city

11:40 around the world had a starch

11:41 synthesizer and it took co2 from the

11:43 atmosphere and water from the ocean and

11:46 had this technique developed out it

11:48 could synthesize its own calories in a

11:50 physical device without needing to rely

11:52 on the ammonia supply chain and the

11:54 phosphate supply chain

11:56 and all of the systems that we rely on

11:58 that are super outdated that are all a

12:00 scaled up industrialized version of old

12:03 school agrarian techniques humans today

12:05 i think have the ability to synthesize

12:07 and print food and over the next couple

12:08 of decades particularly catalyzed by

12:10 what’s going on in russia ukraine today

12:12 we’re going to see these technologies

12:13 accelerate it’s obviously where i spend

12:15 a lot of my time but i’m super excited

12:17 about it yeah i think we suffer from a

12:19 very insidious kind of plague in the

12:22 world which is the plague of

12:23 over-educated dumb people

12:26 and it’s it’s almost as if you know

12:28 because of their degree in the school

12:30 you give them inordinate power to make

12:33 value judgments right that really put

12:35 the world in a very difficult position

12:36 and so when you have something like a

12:38 war in ukraine

12:39 it just lays everything bare

12:42 [Music]

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